Ray Robot 2 Makes Money Trading Breakouts with MetaTrader 4

[silverado8]

Nice smooth equity curve there Jim - definitely be interested in the GKFX ASlpari head to head results

[Jim]

Hi Silverado,

Maybe too smooth to be easily reproducible on a live account? The live test is running RR2 on GU D1, so no trades as yet. More from the son of Ray as soon as there is!

Cheers,

Jim

[Jim]

Hi Laurence,

GKFX demo is only 4 dp's

I'd never noticed that before, but you're right. FTSE & DAX have a digit after the decimal point on a live account, but not on demo. Maybe GKFX are trying to save on bandwidth for demo accounts!

Is that part of the reason for your remarkably good DAX backtest results, do you suppose?

'Trade context is busy' prevents 2 or more concurrently running versions of Ray placing simultaneous orders

One way of getting around that is to use several instances of MetaTrader, all operating on the same account. Even better is to have several accounts instead! There's also a solution in code, which I'll endeavour to include in the next release.

Cheers,

Jim

[Mintaka]

I tested the Son of Ray. DAX30. From 3.07.11 till 16.11.2011. Period H1. Not very bad results. I will have to analyse it, actually.
BestReport15.11.2011.jpg

[Jim]

Hi Mintaka,

Not very bad results. I will have to analyse it, actually.

Thanks for sharing the results of your experiments. Your optimisation report certainly shows lots of green, which is always nice to see! However a bit more information would be handy. For example which axis is the stop loss, and which is the profit target? Did you have "Skip Useless Results" ticked or not?

Cheers,

Jim

[Mintaka]

However a bit more information would be handy. For example which axis is the stop loss, and which is the profit target? Did you have "Skip Useless Results" ticked or not?
Jim

Jim, I did skip useless results......I admitted.

Hereby more info from the best single test report.


Symbol DAX30SB (German 30 Spread Bet (Bet per 1))
Period 1 Hour (H1) 2011.07.04 08:00 - 2011.11.15 21:00 (2011.07.03 - 2011.11.16)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Parameters MMType=0; Lots=0.1; RiskPercent=1; FadeEntry=false; EntryGap=5; ProfitTarget=160; StopLoss=30; useLog=true;
Bars in test 2357 Ticks modelled 1901977 Modelling quality n/a
Mismatched charts errors 65363
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 449.69 Gross profit 895.65 Gross loss -445.97
Profit factor 2.01 Expected payoff 2.19
Absolute drawdown 16.14 Maximal drawdown 59.91 (0.59%) Relative drawdown 0.59% (59.91

Here is the best few optimization results

2011-11-16_1638.png

I hope it makes more sense now

[Jim]

Hi Mintaka,

Thanks for the additional information. If all "useless results" are white on your 2D optimization graph then that's a pretty "useful" picture for such a simple trading system! Have you done any tests with EntryGap set to something other than 5, or going further back into the past? It's generally not a very good idea to start trading a system solely on the basis that the "optimal" settings for the last few weeks or months look good. Do different values for EntryGap and/or different time periods still show as much "2D green" for example?

Cheers,

Jim

[Jim]

Hi Laurence,

'Trade context is busy' prevents 2 or more concurrently running versions of Ray placing simultaneous orders

Here's a new version of RR2, which should solve that problem:

RayRobot2_v101.zip

The archive now also includes a 36 page user manual. The instructions themselves are only a couple of pages! The rest is a variety of live test and backtest results, for comparison purposes. Here's an extract, which is a 3 and a bit month backtest using daily bars of GBP/USD, which is the setup Ray is using for his live spread betting test:

RR2-SBTest-3Month-SmartLive.jpg

Cheers,

Jim

[Jim]

Hi Laurence,

Final optimisation on Dax 1hr suggests that a stop loss of 1 pip & a target of 90 pips will bring wealth beyond your wildest dreams...
Could Ray be the Holy Grail disguised as a donkey?

I fear Ray is more the donkey than the Holy Grail. Spot the difference between these two charts of the gap on the DAX this morning. Here's the GKFX version:

2011-11-23_2256_GKFX_DAX.png

and here's FXCM's:

2011-11-23_2257_FXCM_DAX.png

It seems that first thing in the morning GKFX/Smart Live issue a single tick for the DAX at yesterday's close or thereabouts. Their second tick is then roughly where FXCM's first tick of the morning resides. I fear you have inadvertently optimised Ray for trading long 8 AM bars that are in fact a mirage. I strongly suspect any optimisation run on FXCM, or any other broker that leaves a gap on the DAX, will come up with rather less spectacular equity curves than the ones Smart Live have displayed to you

Cheers,

Jim

[bigpipn]

A more fair analysis would be to use a 3rd party reliable feed/broker (I suggest integral liquidity) to signal in the trades simultaneously, as these accounts are run on their "market maker"/"instant execution" accounts. This means that they are giving you the best (or worst lol) quote they have to offer from their pricing machine.

I have also attached a 3rd Party MT4 platform. The automatic feed/broker in the demo is Swiss Quote. Notice how wide the spreads get during certain times of the day and how accurate/fortuitous the intra-day gaps are. This is raw data from a LP. Spreads are wider but are good for testing because you will under-promise on your back tests but over-deliver on your live accounts. I'm not affiliated with Rous at all, they were very helpful with the extensive list of questions I had.

I have no doubt that your profit margin will increase if you go ahead and use this 3rd party MT4 platform instead of the one you download from your broker. Do NOT update when prompted.

Added your system to test and will report back with results.