Dukascopy have announced that they will be running a manual trading contest in parallel with their automated trading competition, and what's more it started on December 1st!

The rules for this contest state that:

Any forms of automated trading are forbidden
and point out that:

The main feature of the contest is a requirement to comment all trading operations including description of reasons and logic. These comments are collected into personal blogs of the contestants and main blog of the contest. Visitors are offered to read, analyze and evaluate traders forecasts by rating or commenting it.
As you can see, Dukascopy are hoping to build their own forex social network around the competition. As a consequence of that the position of a trader on the leaderboard is determined not simply by increase in equity, but instead by the average of four factors:

Performance - real increase of capital. Maximum 100 points.
Pips Expert - amount of gained pips (scaled). Maximum 100 points.
Popularity - summary of three ratings. Maximum 100 points.
Dukascopy - Experts' evaluation of the forecasts quality. Maximum 100 points.

I decided to entered the competition using exactly the same random entry system that Ray the Random Robot is using in the December JForex automated strategy contest, but with one minor variation. In the "robot" competition the entrants are not allowed to use truly random entries, so that Dukascopy can compare live trading results with backtests to ensure no shenanigans have taken place during the competition.

For the manual trading contest there is no such restriction, so I am using a time honoured method of generating a random binary sequence. To avoid having to waste time poring over any charts I am utilising the time saving device of tossing my trusty two pence piece (TTPP for short) to decide on the direction of each trade. I have also set up the JForex platform to use a default trade size of 1/2 million, and default profit target and stop loss settings of 50 pips. That makes it very quick and easy to manually enter each new trade. The most time consuming thing is actually typing in my explanation for the direction of each trade. As you can see from the snapshots from my auto-generated blog below, at times the market can move a considerable distance in the time it takes to do that. The brevity of my explanations seems to have led to some confusion amongst the readers of my trading journal!


My TTPP served me well initially, racking up a sequence of 5 straight wins. The last of those came courtesy of the latest NFP numbers yesterday lunchtime (European time). Even before that I found myself already up to second position in the competition, and in possession of some gold stars!


However lady luck then turned against me, and two losing trades followed. I am using a manual version of Ray's Martingale money management method, so I'm doubling the trade size after each loss. Two in a row means my trade size is now up to 2 million, and the account has had to absorb 1.5 million's worth of losses. Despite that today I find I've only dropped one place, to third position:


At the moment no points have yet been awarded by Dukascopy's jury for the quality of my random forecasts. I wonder what they will make of my TTPP?